Seven poker numbers worth memorizing
Good poker players don't calculate at the table. They remember. A handful of equities and out-counts cover the vast majority of spots you'll ever face, and once they're in your head, the “math” of a hand takes about two seconds.
Here are seven numbers worth owning cold. Every figure below was computed by the same engine that grades our Poker Odds trainer — exact enumeration where the board is short, brute-force simulation preflop — so these aren't folklore numbers passed between forums; they're the real equities.
1. Overpair vs underpair: about 82/18
Aces against kings, all-in preflop, is roughly 82% to 18%. Our engine puts A♠A♥ vs K♠K♥ at 82.5% over twenty thousand dealt boards. That one number generalizes: any bigger pair against a smaller pair is about a 4-to-1 favorite.
The useful corollary is emotional, not mathematical: kings will lose this spot nearly one time in five. If that outcome surprises you at the table, the number wasn't really memorized.
2. Two overcards vs a pair: the classic coin flip
Ace-king suited against a pair of deuces is 50.4% vs 49.6% — a genuine coin flip, with the suited big cards a hair ahead. This is the shape of most “race” all-ins: pair against two overcards, and neither side has much to celebrate.
Knowing it's a flip changes how you play late-tournament spots: you stop looking for reasons one side is “way ahead” and start thinking about stack sizes and fold equity instead.
3, 4 and 5. The out-counts: 9, 8, 4
Draws come in three standard sizes, and they're worth knowing as reflexively as your own name:
- Flush draw — four cards of a suit after the flop: 9 outs (thirteen of the suit minus your four).
- Open-ended straight draw — e.g. 8-9 on a 6-7-x board: 8 outs (four cards on each end).
- Gutshot — an inside straight draw: 4 outs, and the reason chasing them is usually lighting money on fire.
6. The rule of 2 and 4
Outs become equity with one multiplication. With one card to come, your chance to hit is roughly your outs times 2, as a percentage. On the flop with two cards to come (an all-in, so you see both), it's outs times 4.
A flush draw on the flop: 9 outs × 4 ≈ 36% to get there by the river — close to the true number. On the turn: 9 × 2 ≈ 18%. The approximation drifts a little at high out-counts, but it's accurate enough to make correct call-or-fold decisions in real time, which is the entire point.
7. The dominated ace: about 70/30
Ace-king against ace-queen — the “dominated” matchup where one hand shares the ace and holds the worse kicker — runs roughly 70/30 before the flop. It's the quiet killer of casual players, who see an ace and a face card and feel invincible.
The lesson generalizes: when your ace is out-kicked, you're not flipping, you're drawing at three outs. That's why tight players fold ace-jack to a tight raiser without much regret.
Why memorize instead of calculate?
Because the table doesn't wait. Live poker gives you seconds, online poker gives you a clock, and equity you have to derive is equity you'll misuse under pressure. The players who seem to “just know” the odds do — they've drilled these numbers until recall replaced arithmetic.
That's trainable. Counting outs on a random flop and estimating all-in equity within a few points are skills you can build in short daily reps, the same way counters drill the running count.
Our Outs Counter deals you real flops and grades your count instantly; the Equity Trainer does the same for all-in win percentages.
Drill your outs →